What’s
worthy of note is that many of the major markets, after the minor selloff of
the past couple weeks, have found support and could be ready to resume their
uptrend. Let’s take a look for clues as to what direction currency traders and
investors will push these markets. There are a whole cocktail of economic
reports that could drive the markets in either direction. Data already released
today are European economic reports that seem to be supportive of the
markets. Most notable was the German ZEW
Economic Sentiment figures that reported numbers that were more bullish than
expected. Coming out of the US later today are inflation, industrial production
and Consumer Price Index(CPI) numbers. For
those interested in a more in depth analysis, we at CM trading are here to assist
those who are interested in profiting from the financial markets.
EURUSD
Let’s start our analysis with the
EURUSD, the most watched of all the currencies. After hitting a low of 1.2888 to
start the trading week, it is currently trading at the week’s high of 1.3010. Market
makers appear to have lost patience with the question mark of whether Spain
would request a bailout and it seems to have broken out of its trading range.
Pay attention to the US CPI numbers coming out at 8:30 EST that if negative
could be bullish for the EURUSD.
Resistance
|
R1:
1.2995
|
R2: 1.303
|
R3: 1.3065
|
Support
|
S1: 1.292
|
S2: 1.289
|
S3: 1.2830
|
GBPUSD
There was a wide array of economic
reports that came out of the UK today that appear to have been the cause for
the GBPUSD’s rise above the weeks low of 1.6020 to its current high for the
week of 1.6109. Holding above 1.6060 is an important level to watch for the
near term. Employment numbers and MPC meeting minutes coming out tomorrow could
determine if the break above resistance today is the start of a trend change
for the currency pair.
Resistance
|
R1:
1.6095
|
R2: 1.614
|
R3: 1.6215
|
Support
|
S1: 1.606
|
S2: 1.6025
|
S3: 1.5975
|
USDCAD
After dropping down to .9770 to
start the week, the pair is currently trading near the top of its range at
.9820. At 8:30 EST, numbers for Canadian
Manufacturing and Foreign Securities
Purchases are being reported. This combined with the various US economic
reports could provide swings for those wanting to trade both sides of the
market.
| Resistance |
R1:
0.9825
|
R2: 0.985
|
R3: 0.988
|
Support
|
S1: 0.98
|
S2: 0.977
|
S3: 0.9745
|
Crude Oil
Let’s shift our analysis from the fx
market to the energy market. Crude oil prices are mainly driven by the simple
economics of supply and demand. It’s
been trading between $87.66 and $93.84 since the end of September and is
currently trading at $92.25. Coming up later
today is the API Weekly Crude Stock that indicates how much crude oil is
available in storage. Higher than expected numbers could indicate weaker demand
and this would be bearish for crude oil prices.
Resistance
|
R1:
92.60
|
R2: 92.95
|
R3: 93.30
|
Support
|
S1: 92.00
|
S2: 91.50
|
S3: 91.00
|
Daily
Calendar for Tuesday, October 16
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Event
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
|
4:30 EST
|
GBP
|
CPI(MoM)
|
.4%
|
.4%
|
.5%
|
|
4:30 EST
|
GBP
|
PPI Input(YoY)
|
-1.2%
|
-.8%
|
1.1%
|
|
4:30 EST
|
GBP
|
Core CPI(YoY)
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
2.1%
|
|
4:30 EST
|
GBP
|
PPI Input(MoM)
|
-0.2%
|
-.1%
|
1.9%
|
|
4:30 EST
|
GBP
|
CPI(YoY)
|
2.2%
|
2.2%
|
2.5%
|
|
5:00 EST
|
EUR
|
German ZEW Econ. Sentiment
|
-11.5
|
-15.0
|
-18.2
|
|
8:30 EST
|
USD
|
Core CPI(YoY)
|
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
|
8:30 EST
|
CAD
|
Manufacturing Sales(MoM)
|
1.50%
|
1.0%
|
-1.5%
|
|
8:30 EST
|
USD
|
CPI(YoY)
|
2.0%
|
1.9%
|
1.7%
|
|
8:30 EST
|
USD
|
CPI(MoM)
|
0.6%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
|
|
8:30 EST
|
USD
|
Core CPI(MoM)
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
|
8:30 EST
|
CAD
|
Foreign Securities Purchases
|
6.90B
|
8.72B
|
6.67B
|
|
9:15 EST
|
USD
|
Industrial Production(MoM)
|
0.4%
|
0.2%
|
-1.2%
|
|
16:30EST
|
USD
|
API Weekly Crude Stock
|
|
1.48M
|
1.65M
|
Jacob Fendrich
Senior Market Analyst
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