Market Analysis – S & P 500, DOW Jones – new
all-time highs, but how much further???
Most people in the financial
markets including big fund managers, Institutional investors, and small
investors are all wondering the same thing. How much further will the stock
markets continue trending upwards?? With corporate earnings looking bright, it
will be very hard to say what we can expect from this bull market. Markets
either trade up, down, or sideways. However, with the current levels we cannot
judge exactly how much longer this uptrend will continue.
On a country by country basis,
we still see weak economies. The EUROPEAN markets still have what to consider
with the Greece bailout. The United States also has its share of problems,namely the BIG debt that it has to China. With Japan's looming currency crisis, this is another situation that could upset the balance of world economies.
This is a very interesting situation, because even though
countries are experiencing difficulty, companies in the respective
countries are doing mildly well. A good indication that the economies are getting stronger is clear from the
depreciation of GOLD, down from its highs, there are overwhelmingly more short
sellers in GOLD then buyers.
As always time will tell how
the markets will unfold, but what’s for sure is that this is a traders market. There
is liquidity and volatility both prerequisites of a good trading environment.
Economic News for the week of May 20th 2013 until May
24th 2013
Monday
|
Tuesday
|
Wednesday
|
Thursday
|
Friday
|
No major news
out
|
AUD (2:30 AM
GMT) –
Monetary Policy Meeting
Minutes
GBP (9:30 AM
GMT) –
Core Price Index Yearly
GBP (Tentative)
–
Bank of England
Inflation Letter
|
JPY
(Tentative) –
Monetary Policy
Statement
JPY
(Tentative) –
Bank of Japan Press
Confrence
GBP (9:30 AM
GMT) –
Monetary Policy Conference
CHF (11:00
AM GMT) –
Swiss National Bank
Chairman Speaks
CAD (1:30 PM
GMT) –
Core Retail
Sales (monthly)
USD (3:00 PM GMT) –
Existing Home
Sales
USD (3:00 PM GMT) –
Fed Chairman
Bernanke
Testifies
USD (7:00 PM GMT) –
FOMC Meeting
Minutes
|
CNY (2:45 AM
GMT) –
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR (8:00 AM
GMT) –
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR (8:30 AM
GMT) –
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP (9:30 AM
GMT) –
Retail Sales (monthly)
EUR
(Tentative) –
Spanish 10 yr. Bond Auction
GBP (9:30 AM
GMT) –
Second Estimate GDP (quarterly)
USD (1:30 PM
GMT) –
Unemployment Claims
USD (3:00 PM
GMT) –
New Home Sales
NZD (11:45
PM GMT) –
Trade Balance
|
JPY (3:55 AM
GMT) –
Bank of Japan Gov. Kuroda Speaks
EUR (9:00 AM
GMT) –
German Ifo Business Climate
USD (1:30 PM
GMT) –
Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)
|
Technial Trading Gameplan for the week of May 20th
2013 until May 24th 2013
Approaching its lower range
the pair can have a repeat of last summer if it breaks the 1.27 range. Keep in
mind that there is big news coming from the US this week so this pair should be
on your radar.
RESISTANCE
|
R1: 1.28508
|
R2: 1.28886
|
R3: 1.29926
|
SUPPORT
|
S1: 1.28172
|
S2: 1.27887
|
R3: 1.27472
|
USD/JPY
The pair continues to show
strength and no sight of correction, however if you are long this pair you
should set trailing stop losses so that you can keep some of your profits.
RESISTANCE
|
R1: 102.915
|
R2: 103.117
|
R3: 103.294
|
SUPPORT
|
S1: 102.267
|
S2: 101.831
|
R3: 99.925
|
South Africa mining industries
are experiencing strikes and as a result have negative effect on the currency. The
pair are trading in almost perfect range and is tradable on a day to day basis
RESISTANCE
|
R1: 9.53754
|
R2: 10.00ish
|
R3: 10.66790
|
SUPPORT
|
S1: 9.38499
|
S2: 9.36145
|
R3: 9.33372
|
The commodity is falling apart,
as more investors are focusing in the equity markets and are less concerned
with inflation and political uncertainty. After not breaking higher than $1,483
in the last 2 weeks of trading, the commodity has been retracing lower and very
close to its big selloff at the beginning of the month.
RESISTANCE
|
R1: $1,369.34
|
R2: $1,389.49
|
R3: $1,413.46
|
SUPPORT
|
S1: $1,330.45
|
S2: $1,267.78
|
R3: $1,182.31
|
With the U.S. companies
showing stronger earnings, the index is breaking gradually higher and has not
shown any resistance. Let’s see if this momentum can continue as we enter the
quiet summer months.
RESISTANCE
|
R1: New
Highs
|
R2: New Highs
|
R3: New
Highs
|
SUPPORT
|
S1: 1,620.10
|
S2: 1,607.20
|
R3: 1,593.19
|
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