Weekly Forex Market Analysis

Market Analysis – Which Central Bank has the upper hand?

 

 

We saw some major swings in the market last week, specifically with the EURUSD, first on Wednesday, April 30^th with the FOMC Meeting (USD) and subsequently with the ECB (EUR) on Thursday, May 1^st. The EURUSD had a very volatile range (210 PIPS) and experienced traders were really able to take advantage from the volatility on both sides. In the end of the week the pair seemed to finally find a balance at 1.311 ish and will look this week to see if the pair will first look to consolidate before making any clear direction to either side.
 

**For those interested in a more in depth analysis, we at CM trading are here to assist those who are interested in profiting from the financial markets. Below are the charts and the day’s economic events to better understand the current short term trends in some of the different markets**
 

Economic News for the week of May 6^th to May 10^th 2013

 

Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
AUD (2:30AM GMT) -Retail Sales CAD (1:30PM GMT) – Building Permits EUR (2:00PM GMT) – ECB President Draghi Speaks CAD (3:00PM GMT) – Ivey PMI	AUD (2:30 AM GMT) – Trade Balance AUD (5:30 AM GMT) – Cash Rate AUD (5:30 AM GMT) – RBA Rate Statement CHF (8:00 AM GMT) – Foreign Currency Reserves NZD (10:00 PM GMT) RBNZ Financial Stability Report	CNY (TENTATIVE) – Trade Balance CHF (8:15 AM GMT) – Core Price Index NZD (11:45 PM GMT) – Employment Change NZD (11:45 PM GMT) – Unemployment Rate	AUD (2:30 AM GMT) - Employment Change AUD (2:30 AM GMT) – Unemployment Change CNY (2:30 AM GMT) – Core Price Index GBP (9:30 AM GMT) – Manufacturing Production EUR (TENTATIVE) – Spanish 10 Yr. Bond Auction GBP (12:00 PM GMT) – Asset Purchase Facility GBP (12:00 PM GMT) – Official Bank Rate GBP (TENTATIVE) – MPC Rate Statement USD (1:30 PM GMT) – Unemployment Claims	JPY (12:50 AM GMT) – Current Account AUD (2:30 AM GMT) – RBA Monetary Policy Statement ALL CURRENCIES (DAY 1) – G7 Meeting CAD (1:30PM) – Employment Change/Unemployment Rate USD (2:30 PM GMT) – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks	ALL CURRENCIES (DAY 2) – G7 Meeting

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Technial Trading Gameplan for the week of May 5^th until May 10^th 2013

 

EUR/USD

Over the last 4 weeks, the floor for the pair has been around the 1.2968 level with the ceiling at 1.3243. It’s currently at 1.3098 and it’s direction could be firmly establish for the near term following today’s words from Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank.

RESISTANCE	R1:  1.31216	R2:  1.3179	R3:  1.31857
SUPPORT	S1:  1.31010	S2:  1.30432	R3:  1.30042

 

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY has seen very predictable price action since April 5^th , trading in the range of 95.74 to 99.94. As of now it sits near the top of the range at 99.37.

 

RESISTANCE	R1:  99.635	R2:  99.716	R3:  99.756
SUPPORT	S1:  99.480	S2: 99.433	R3:  99.362

USD/ZAR

March 25^th saw the USDZAR reach 9.3197 and it has traded all the way down to 8.8571 on April 11^th. Today we saw it bounce off the 8.8965 level to its current price of 8.95. 

RESISTANCE	R1:  8.97636	R2:  8.98346	R3:  9.00020
SUPPORT	S1:  8.89302	S2:  8.86706	R3:  8.78774

XAU/USD – GOLD

 

Ater it major drop to $1321.49 on April 16^th, its high for the current move up has been $1487.87 on May 3^rd. Getting above $1500.00 will give more credence to the strength of this current move.
 

RESISTANCE	R1:  $1,478.00	R2: $1,483.00	R3:  $1,500.00
SUPPORT	S1:  $1,475.00	S2: $1,472.00	R3:  $1,470.00

S & P Futures

 

The S&P500 is trading at all-time highs, therefore there are no levels on resistance to make note of. It’s current price is 1609.63 and its first support level is 1,607 followed by 1589.00.

RESISTANCE	R1:  New Highs	R2:  New Highs	R3:  New Highs
SUPPORT	S1:  1,607.00	S2:  1,589.00	R3:  1,581.40