Monday, August 27, 2012

Trading This Week - Jackson Hole Everywhere

Coming Up This Week
  • Tuesday - US Consumer Confidence
  • Wednesday – US Preliminary GDP
  • Wednesday – Pending Homes Sales
  • Early Thursday - NBNZ Business Confidence
  • Thursday - Saturday – Jackson Hole Symposium
  • Friday – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks
  • Saturday – ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks

It’s another week of trading. Last week featured some back and forth of potential Fed and ECB actions, which ultimately led to the Euro and global equities advancing. This week, the two central banks will stay in focus as Fed Chairman Bernanke is set to speak on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and will be followed by ECB President Draghi on Saturday. Analysts are split on whether the two central bank chiefs will shed any new light on their respective banks’ plans or not. Nonetheless, as the main news is back ended to the end of the week, it could lead to choppy market conditions.  Charts to Watch GBPUSD: After breaking out above its long term 1.5750 resistance (see chart), the GBPUSD nearly hit 1.5900. Since then it has been retracing. As such, if 1.5800 fails to hold, it could lead to a retest of the old 1.5750 level. If the pair trades back below 1.5750, it will indicate that the current positive momentum is over.  
 AUDUSD: As you can see from the chart below, the AUDUSD is suffering from a break of its uptrend channel and also, it has fallen below its short term 1.0400 support level. The weakness follows are opinion on the Aussie from last week that we are starting to see a rotation out of the currency. As such, if the pair can’t trade and hold above 1.0400, we could see selling pressure begin to pick up it breaks below intraday support of 1.0365.

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