Monday, May 27, 2013

Weekly Forex Market Analysis for the Week of May 27th until May 31st, 2013

Market Analysis – Equity markets retreat, Fed keeps Rates, GOLD bounces and USD/ZAR breaks higher



Our answer finally came last week with the retracement of the Dow Jones. The Dow retraced more than 300 points and gained back 200 points and was left with only 100 points retracement for last week’s trading session. In the trading profession we call this a healthy pullback, this in no way a clear indication that there should be a selloff that should follow. However we are entering the summer months which historically are quieter months with many people and countries beginning their holiday season.  With that said keep a keen eye for opportunities but be aware that markets are trading lighter volume.

Gold bounced sharply last week but still not holding above $1,400 level and may find itself slowly trickling lower.

The South African Rand continues to weaken in the background of the summer months mining strikes.  At these levels it’s not quite certain where it can weaken to. Keep in mind for a trader these are great opportunities.
Economic News for the week of May 27th until 31st 2013

JPY (5:50AM GMT) – BOJ Gov. Kuroda Speaks
No major news
USD (3:00PM GMT) – CB Consumer Confidence
JPY (1:00AM GMT) – BOJ Gov. Kuroda Speaks
EUR (Tentative) – Spanish 10-yr Bond Auction
CAD (3:00PM GMT) – BOC Rate Statement
CAD (3:00PM GMT) – Overnight Rate
AUD (2:30AM GMT) – Building Approvals m/m
 AUD (2:30AM GMT) – Private Capital Expenditure q/q
USD (1:30 PM GMT) – Preliminary GDP q/q
USD (1:30PM GMT) – Unemployment Claims
USD (3:00PM GMT) – Pending Home Sales
ALL CURRENCIES (Tentative) – G8 Meetings
NZD (2:00AM GMT) – ANZ Business Confidence
CAD (1:30PM GMT) – GDP m/m
ALL CURRENCIES (Tentative) – G8 Meetings










Technial Trading Gameplan for the week of May 27th until May 31st 2013




R1: 1.29468
R2: 1.29862
R3: 1.29862
S1: 1.29300
S2: 1.29164
R3: 1.29030


R1: 101.099
R2: 101.298
R3: 101.541
S1: 100.747
S2: 100.650
R3:   99.881



R1: 9.59088
R2: 9.60012
R3: New High
S1: 9.57240
S2: 9.56219
R3: 9.55848

R1: $1,399.55
R2: $1,429.81
R3: $1,479.54
S1: $1,372.31
S2: $1,358.04
R3: $1,345.07


Monday, May 20, 2013

Weekly Forex Market Analysis for the week of May 20th until May 24th 2013

Market Analysis – S & P 500, DOW Jones – new all-time highs, but how much further???



Most people in the financial markets including big fund managers, Institutional investors, and small investors are all wondering the same thing. How much further will the stock markets continue trending upwards?? With corporate earnings looking bright, it will be very hard to say what we can expect from this bull market. Markets either trade up, down, or sideways. However, with the current levels we cannot judge exactly how much longer this uptrend will continue.

On a country by country basis, we still see weak economies. The EUROPEAN markets still have what to consider with the Greece bailout. The United States also has its share of problems,namely the BIG debt that it has to China. With Japan's looming currency crisis, this is another situation that could upset the balance of world economies.

This is a very interesting situation, because even though countries are experiencing difficulty, companies in the respective countries are doing mildly well.  A good indication that the economies are getting stronger is clear from the depreciation of GOLD, down from its highs, there are overwhelmingly more short sellers in GOLD then buyers.

As always time will tell how the markets will unfold, but what’s for sure is that this is a traders market. There is liquidity and volatility both prerequisites of a good trading environment.

Economic News for the week of May 20th 2013 until May 24th 2013

No major news out
AUD (2:30 AM GMT) –
Monetary Policy Meeting
GBP (9:30 AM GMT) –
Core Price Index Yearly
GBP (Tentative) –
Bank of England
Inflation Letter
JPY (Tentative) –
Monetary Policy
JPY (Tentative) –
Bank of Japan Press
GBP (9:30 AM GMT) –
Monetary Policy Conference
CHF (11:00 AM GMT) –
Swiss National Bank
Chairman Speaks
CAD (1:30 PM GMT) –
Core Retail Sales (monthly)
 USD (3:00 PM GMT) –
Existing Home Sales
USD (3:00 PM GMT) –
Fed Chairman Bernanke
USD (7:00 PM GMT) –
FOMC Meeting Minutes
CNY (2:45 AM GMT) –
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR (8:00 AM GMT) –
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR (8:30 AM GMT) –
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
GBP (9:30 AM GMT) –
Retail Sales (monthly)
EUR (Tentative) –
Spanish 10 yr. Bond Auction
GBP (9:30 AM GMT) –
Second Estimate GDP (quarterly)
USD (1:30 PM GMT) –
Unemployment Claims
USD (3:00 PM GMT) –
New Home Sales
NZD (11:45 PM GMT) –
Trade Balance
JPY (3:55 AM GMT) –
Bank of Japan Gov. Kuroda Speaks
EUR (9:00 AM GMT) –
German Ifo Business Climate
USD (1:30 PM GMT) –
Core Durable Goods Orders (monthly)


Technial Trading Gameplan for the week of May 20th 2013 until May 24th 2013


Approaching its lower range the pair can have a repeat of last summer if it breaks the 1.27 range. Keep in mind that there is big news coming from the US this week so this pair should be on your radar.


R1:  1.28508
R2:  1.28886
R3: 1.29926
S1:  1.28172
S2:  1.27887
R3: 1.27472


The pair continues to show strength and no sight of correction, however if you are long this pair you should set trailing stop losses so that you can keep some of your profits.


R1: 102.915
R2: 103.117
R3: 103.294
S1: 102.267
S2: 101.831
R3:   99.925


South Africa mining industries are experiencing strikes and as a result have negative effect on the currency. The pair are trading in almost perfect range and is tradable on a day to day basis

R1:  9.53754
R2: 10.00ish
R3: 10.66790
S1:  9.38499
S2:   9.36145
R3:   9.33372


The commodity is falling apart, as more investors are focusing in the equity markets and are less concerned with inflation and political uncertainty. After not breaking higher than $1,483 in the last 2 weeks of trading, the commodity has been retracing lower and very close to its big selloff at the beginning of the month.


R1:  $1,369.34
R2: $1,389.49
R3:  $1,413.46
S1:  $1,330.45
S2: $1,267.78
R3:  $1,182.31

S & P 500

With the U.S. companies showing stronger earnings, the index is breaking gradually higher and has not shown any resistance. Let’s see if this momentum can continue as we enter the quiet summer months.

R1: New Highs
R2:  New Highs
R3: New Highs
S1: 1,620.10
S2:  1,607.20
R3: 1,593.19