Monday, May 13, 2013

Weekly Forex Market Analysis for the week of May 13th to May 17th 2013

Market Analysis: After all the dust has settled - Gold losing luster, EUR settling lower, and the YEN rockets above 100!



Economic News for the week of May 13th to May 17th 2013

EUR (ALL DAY) - EuroGroup
USD (1:30 PM GMT) - Core Retail Sales- month to month
USD (1:30 PM GMT) – Retail Sales month to month
NZD (11:45 PM GMT) - Retail Sales (Quaterly)
EUR (10:00 AM) – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
AUD (10:30 AM GMT) Annual Budget Release
GBP (9:30 AM GMT) – Claimant Count Change
GBP (10:30 AM GMT) - BOE Gov. King speaks
GBP (10:30 AM GMT) - BOE Inflation Report
CAD (1:30 PM  GMT) -  Manufacturing Sales month to month
USD (1:30 PM GMT) - Producer Price Index month to month
NZD (3:00 AM GMT) -  Annual Budget Release
USD (1:30 PM GMT) - Building Permits
USD (1:30 PM GMT) - Core Price Index month to month
USD (3:00 PM GMT) -  Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
CAD (1:30 PM GMT) - Core CPI month to month
USD (2:55 PM GMT) – Consumer Sentiment

It appears that the “sell in May and go away” advice is being put on hold for the time being. However Market dynamics being what they are, this warning could manifest at any time. There are several events that could create changes in market conditions this week that are worth paying close attention to. More specifically, one should keep an eye on US Retail Sales data coming out later today. On Wednesday, there will be German ZEW Economic Sentiment figures and quarterly/yearly GDP numbers. Also on Wednesday, we’ll hear words from Mr. Mervyn Kind who is the head of the Bank of England – this should have a wide reaching effect on various markets. Finally, on Thursday we’ll have both CPI numbers and employment data coming out of the US.

*For those interested in a more in depth analysis, we at CM Trading are here to assist those who are interested in profiting from the financial markets. Below are the charts and the day’s economic events to better understand the current short term trends in some of the different markets.

Technial Trading Gameplan for the week of May 13th until May 17th 2013


After major economic news from the previous week, the EURO has finally broken its lower range and has breached the 1.300 mark. Psychologically, this is a very big number and if the currency cannot hold itself it may continue this downside trend and retest 1.27.


R1:  1.29933
R2: 1.30492 
R3: 1.30866
S1:  1.29645
S2: 1.29430
R3: 1.29330


Another really interesting story that is unfolding is the USDJPY, never have I seen such an aggressive move from the beginning of the year. The YEN has depreciated vs. the USD more than 30%!! Clearly with the involvement of the BOJ, the pair will really need to break above the 105 level in order to hold its bullish trend.

R1:  102.00
R2:  103.986
R3:  104.823
S1:  101.505
S2:  101.360
R3:  101.123


After reaching 9.1507 today, the currency has seen a massive selloff to 9.0937 and appears to have more steam on the downside to get to support at the 9.0542 level. Regardless of what it does for the short term,  the trading range of the last 5 months will remain in place as long as it stays between 9.30 and 8.77.

R1: 9.12899
R2:  9.14688
R3:  9.15270
S1: 9.10534
S2:  9.09957
R3:  9.08515



Gold was trading mostly in a tight range last week bouncing from $1,475 on the upper side and $1,440 on the lower end, however, last Friday we saw a heavy selloff and it broke its lower range and settled around $1,423. This should definitely be on your radar to see if it will settle lower and continue a downward trend.


R1:  $1,434.97
R2: $1,436.00
R3:  $1,438.84
S1:  $1,427.57
S2: $1,425.90
R3:  $1,419.18


S & P Futures

The S&P 500 continues to be in a very strong uptrend. This week’s economic events will either push the index higher or cause a sharp reversal, given that a strong correction hasn’t occurred in close to 6 months. If the “sell in May” dictum takes hold, it makes sense to be cautious.

R1: 1,629.46
R2: 1,631.63 
R3: new highs
S1: 1,606.35
S2: 1,594.80
R3: 1,569.53 


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