Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Market Update: Central Banks in Focus

Coming Up This Week

  • German Constitutional Court Ruling
  • RBNZ Meeting
  • UK Claimant Count Change
  • US Fed FOMC Meeting
Following last week’s ECB Meeting and the US’s Non Farm Payrolls figures, forex traders will continue to be focused on central bank actions. In the EU, after Draghi’s plan that called for “unlimited” bond buying was finally made official, the question for traders is whether it will get German backing at Wednesday’s Constitutional Court Ruling. The current feeling is that the German’s are on board with the Bundesbank endorsing the project. Although the consequences of the ECB’s bond buying is higher inflation, at this point the realities are that Germany’s key manufacturing sector is gaining from the existence of the Euro.
Elsewhere, Wednesday will be a big day for the US as the Fed holds it FOMC Meeting. As has been telegraphed over the last few weeks, it seems more and more likely that the Fed will announce some sort of new QE program. On the expectations, the USDJPY has fallen back towards 78.00 after trading above 79.00 last week. However, with a lot happening in the EU, we could very well see the Fed sitting pat for another six weeks. Also, they may decide that with the rest of the world’s central banks applying monetary stimulus, that the US is already benefitting from the global actions and the Fed can stay on the sidelines.

 As important as the ECB and Fed are, many forex traders are really looking ahead to Thursday’s SNB Meeting. The EURCHF has been moving higher after trading near 1.2000 for the last six months. It currently has been forming a support base around 1.2075. While the actual move is quite small, for the EURCHF, it’s the equivalent of a 5 figure move. As such, speculation is rising that the strength could be a prelude to an announcement from the SNB that it will raise the EURCHF price floor from 1.2000 to 1.2200 or higher.  

Charts to Watch
EURCHF: Couldn’t hold 1.2100 but is still seeing the creation of a support base building up. As such, it appears that the current move is more than just a “fat finger” buy program or the result of a large player exiting a short position.
 USDJPY: Sentiment in the USDJPY has clearly moved in the direction that the US Fed will stimulate. For forex traders this means that if the Fed stays put, the USDJPY will be ripe for a move back above 79.00. On the other hand, if QE3 finally arrives, a break below 77.80 support could easily trigger a drop towards 77.00

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