Daily Market Analysis - October 15, 2012

The start of the trading week is off to a positive note after IMF and World bank meetings over the weekend. Although no definitive plan was proposed, there is optimism among world leaders that with a jointed effort a global debt crisis can be avoided. Now let’s take a look at the different markets and what to expect from currency traders and investors. For those interested in a more in depth analysis, we at CM trading are here to assist those who are interested in profiting from the financial markets.

EURUSD

EURUSD hit a low of 1.2888 within several hours of the opening of the trading week. It is currently trading at 1.2960 and remains stuck in the trading range of the past week. If the currency pair is to break out of this trading range, either Retail Sales or the Core Retail Sales could be that catalyst. If these numbers are lower than expected, this could cause the EURUSD to rise. These reports are due an hour before the US market opens at 8:30 EST.

Resistance	R1: 1.2970	R2: 1.2990	R3: 1.3030
Support	S1: 1.2920	S2: 1.2880	S3: 1.2830

AUDUSD

The AUDUSD sold off at the open, reaching the technically significant level of 1.0201 and bouncing off that level nicely to its current price of 1.0233. Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are being released at 20:30 EST. This report has the potential to ignite significant moves in the pair.

Resistance	R1: 1.0285	R2: 1.0320	R3: 1.0375
Support	S1: 1.0215	S2: 1.0180	S3: 1.0150

CADUSD

The pair opened the trading week at .9810 and has since dropped down to .9782.  Some big moves could be expected as the BoC Governor Mark Carney is expected to speak at 15:20 EST. He is recognized as having more influence over the Canadian dollar’s value than any other person. His words have the potential to create short term trend changes.

Resistance	R1: .9810	R2: .9835	R3: .9855
Support	S1: .9795	S2: .9765	S3: .9745

 Gold

Let’s shift our analysis from the foreign currency market to the precious metals market. It is at a significant point right now that could determine its medium term direction. From Friday until now, it has fallen from $1773.50 all the way to a low of $1740 at today’s market open and is currently trading at $1747. This type of correction isn’t anything out of the ordinary after such a large move up. More specifically it rallied all the way from $1591 to $1796 over the course of less than 3 months. Historically, these kinds of moves can sometimes be accompanied by corrections of 50% of the move up. However it’s important to remember than Gold is viewed as a safe haven investment and the technical side can sometimes be ignored if investors have cause for concern.

Resistance	R1: 1752.75	R2: 1764.59	R3: 1777.40
Support	S1: 1731.50	S2: 1722.30	S3: 1707.12

Daily Calendar for Thursday, October 11

Time	Country/Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
8:30EST	USD	Retail Sales(MoM)		.8%	.9%
8:30EST	USD	Core Retail Sales(MoM)		.6%	.8%
15:20EST	CAD	BoC Gov Carney Speaks
20:30EST	AUD	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Successful Trading!

Jacob Fendrich
Senior Market Analyst

http://www.CMTrading.com 

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