Wednesday, May 30, 2012

USDJPY Analysis: Fade Moves Until Friday

 Spain’s banking demise has triggered a week long risk off move in the Forex markets. As would be expected, the Japanese Yen has been gaining overall on its safe haven status. While the moves in Yen crosses such as the EURJPY and GBPJPY may continue to have follow-through downward momentum, the USDJPY could be a bounce candidate. As can be seen in the chart below, the USDJPY is dropping out of its two week long triangle formation. While such moves can often trigger a sustained breakout move in the direction that a Forex pair trades out of the triangle, fundamental news could hamper the technical moves in the USDJPY.

Specifically, with US Non-Farm Payrolls set to be released on Friday, many Forex traders could be sitting on the sidelines until after the jobs data reveals further clarity to the US dollar’s fortunes. In addition, the USDJPY is currently well supported just below 79.00. As such, fundamentals and technical suggest that the USDJPY is a solid buy on the dip candidate on any further weakness closer to 79.00.

 More outside opinions about the USDJPY
Thomson/Reuters Market Order Level Indications: JPY Topside: 79.70-80 (light offers), 79.90-80.20 (light 2-way), 80.40-90 (light staggered offers) Downside: 79.05-20 (light-medium stop sell zone), 78.75-90 (light stops), 78.30-50 (2-way interest, stop bias)

UBS Forex Team: Bearish: Price action has been choppy over the pat few sessions. Trend is still bearish; a break below 79.00 would expose 78.36 next. Resistance is at 80.15.

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